UBS Cuts Swiss Franc Forecast Amid Global Risks and SNB Policy Outlook

UBS has lowered its outlook on the Swiss franc, citing heightened global uncertainties and robust safe-haven demand that could drive volatility in CHF. The bank also noted that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may step in to help stabilize EUR/CHF in the near term.

UBS now forecasts:

  • EUR/CHF to reach 0.93 by September, and 0.94 by mid-2026, slightly below its previous estimates.

  • While German fiscal stimulus may support the euro later this year, new U.S. tariffs could keep pressure on EUR/CHF.

For the GBP/CHF pair, UBS expects it to remain within a 1.07–1.08 range, highlighting U.K. fiscal risks and geopolitical uncertainty as major headwinds for the pound.

Notably, UBS has made a sharp downward revision to its USD/CHF forecast, pointing to escalating trade tensions and growing expectations of Fed rate cuts as drivers of continued dollar weakness:

  • It sees USD/CHF falling to 0.76 by June 2026,

  • And cautions that any short-term rally above 0.80 is likely to be fleeting.