Despite a rise in speculative positioning, the euro remains under pressure, with EUR/USD struggling to regain bullish momentum. According to the latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net long euro positions climbed to 15.6% of open interest as of July 15, the highest level since January, signaling increased speculative interest.
However, analysts at ING caution that the euro still lacks solid upward traction. While the dollar has recently softened, its strength has been largely driven by capital and hedging flows rather than outright speculation — a dynamic that continues to weigh on the single currency.
Concerns over stalled U.S.-EU trade talks are also resurfacing. Reports indicate that some EU nations are considering retaliatory actions in response to potential tariffs from the Trump administration, raising the specter of renewed transatlantic trade tensions.
Ahead of the European Central Bank's policy meeting on Thursday, markets are not expecting a dovish shift, with the next rate cut still projected for December. ING believes a return to the early July high near 1.180 is unlikely, suggesting 1.160 is a more achievable near-term target — particularly if the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance.