Oil Falls to Five-Month Low as Oversupply Fears Intensify and Middle East Risk Premium Fades

Crude prices extended their decline on Tuesday, hovering near their lowest levels in five months, as mounting concerns over global oversupply overshadowed easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Brent crude for December delivery slipped toward $61 per barrel, while WTI edged lower to $57.45, marking the third consecutive weekly loss for both benchmarks.

According to tanker-tracking firm Vortexa, roughly 1.2 billion barrels of crude are currently in transit — highlighting rising global output from OPEC+ members, as well as growing exports from the United States and Brazil following President Trump’s push for increased production and lower fuel prices.

Meanwhile, fears of a major disruption in Middle Eastern supply have eased. The U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas appears to be holding despite renewed weekend violence, reducing the recent geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude markets.

Traders also believe the likelihood of harsher U.S. sanctions on Russia has diminished, amid reports that Trump may be urging Kyiv to make territorial concessions to end the war — a shift that would leave Russian oil exports largely unaffected.

Analysts warn that with demand soft and supply continuing to build, downside risks for oil remain prominent in the near term.