Goldman Sachs warned in a new report that if investor confidence in U.S. institutions falters, undermining the Federal Reserve’s independence and credibility, gold prices could surge to $5,000 per ounce.
The bank’s base case sees gold rising to $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026. Analyst Samantha Dart described gold as “the most likely long convexity option,” supported by sustained central bank buying.
Dart cautioned that a loss of Fed independence could trigger higher inflation, weaker equities, and pressure on the dollar’s reserve status—all conditions that may prompt private investors to follow central banks into gold. Even a 1% shift of global sovereign bond holdings into precious metals could lift gold near $5,000, above Goldman’s previous $4,500 tail-risk scenario.
Beyond Fed concerns, Goldman highlighted risks from commodity supply chain concentration in the Middle East, Russia, and China, along with slowing spare capacity from OPEC+. Structural factors such as rising defense spending, grid investment, and diversification away from the U.S. dollar are also tightening the market outlook.
Since 2022, gold has already surged around 94%, driven largely by central bank purchases after Russian dollar assets were frozen. Goldman concluded that commodities remain a key hedge against inflation and geopolitical shocks, with gold standing out as the primary beneficiary.
